What are the odds of getting a 100% IV Pokemon from raids or eggs?


Odds of getting the very best Pokemon

One of the goals of the game arguably is to catch the best possible Pokemon, i.e. the 100% IV Pokemon with the best moveset. Now that there are TMs (Technical Machines) in the game, getting the right moveset is less important right now.

So, what are the odds of getting a 100% Pokemon from raids and eggs?

IV ranges

The individual values of each stat for Pokemon hatched from eggs or caught in raids have a minimum of 10 and caps at 15. Thus, there are 6 possible values for each stat. The values for each stat are independently rolled and this means there are 6 * 6 * 6 = 216 permutations.
This makes the odds of getting any permutation (eg. 15/15/15) 1/216 (or 0.46%).

The IVs follow a normal distribution curve and it is as such:

The most common IV % are 82% and 84% and the least common are 67% and 100%.

The probability of a top tier appraisal (82% or higher IV) is 62.5% (~1 out of 2), probability of getting above 90% is 16.2% (~1 out of 7) and probability of getting above 95% is 4.6% (~1 out of 22).

The chart below summarises these numbers.


TL;DR

IV Total IV % Frequency Chance of this or better
30 66.7% 0.5% 100.0%
31 68.9% 1.4% 99.5%
32 71.1% 2.8% 98.1%
33 73.3% 4.6% 95.4%
34 75.6% 6.9% 90.7%
35 77.8% 9.7% 83.8%
36 80.0% 11.6% 74.1%
37 82.2% 12.5% 62.5%
38 84.4% 12.5% 50.0%
39 86.7% 11.6% 37.5%
40 88.9% 9.7% 25.9%
41 91.1% 6.9% 16.2%
42 93.3% 4.6% 9.3%
43 95.6% 2.8% 4.6%
44 97.8% 1.4% 1.9%
45 100.0% 0.5% 0.5%



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