## Odds of getting the very best Pokemon

One of the goals of the game arguably is to catch the best possible Pokemon, i.e. the 100% IV Pokemon with the best moveset. Now that there are TMs (Technical Machines) in the game, getting the right moveset is less important right now.So, what are the odds of getting a 100% Pokemon from raids and eggs?

#### IV ranges

The individual values of each stat for Pokemon hatched from eggs or caught in raids have a minimum of 10 and caps at 15. Thus, there are 6 possible values for each stat. The values for each stat are independently rolled and this means there are 6 * 6 * 6 = 216 permutations.

This makes the odds of getting any permutation (eg. 15/15/15) 1/216 (or 0.46%).

The IVs follow a normal distribution curve and it is as such:

The most common IV % are 82% and 84% and the least common are 67% and 100%.

The probability of a top tier appraisal (82% or higher IV) is 62.5% (~1 out of 2), probability of getting above 90% is 16.2% (~1 out of 7) and probability of getting above 95% is 4.6% (~1 out of 22).

The chart below summarises these numbers.

### TL;DR

IV Total | IV % | Frequency | Chance of this or better |
---|---|---|---|

30 | 66.7% | 0.5% | 100.0% |

31 | 68.9% | 1.4% | 99.5% |

32 | 71.1% | 2.8% | 98.1% |

33 | 73.3% | 4.6% | 95.4% |

34 | 75.6% | 6.9% | 90.7% |

35 | 77.8% | 9.7% | 83.8% |

36 | 80.0% | 11.6% | 74.1% |

37 | 82.2% | 12.5% | 62.5% |

38 | 84.4% | 12.5% | 50.0% |

39 | 86.7% | 11.6% | 37.5% |

40 | 88.9% | 9.7% | 25.9% |

41 | 91.1% | 6.9% | 16.2% |

42 | 93.3% | 4.6% | 9.3% |

43 | 95.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% |

44 | 97.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% |

45 | 100.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |

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