Egg Hatch Probabilities in Pokemon GO

Eggs used to be the only way of getting rare Pokemon, outside of catching them in the wild. Now, with raids, the meta of the game has somewhat changed. Hatching eggs is like gambling on chance. Each species has a specific chance to be obtained from pokestops, hidden in eggs.

Species first? Or egg distance first?

Contrary to popular belief that the random roll for egg groups is done first, followed by the species in that egg group, that is not the case. TheSilphRoad had found out that the species come first. What you will get is determined when you first spin the pokestop (and got the egg). After the species has been determined, it is then put into whichever egg group it has been assigned to.

Rarity group

Each species of Pokemon has a certain percentage chance of being obtained from eggs.
There are 5 rarity groups, namely:
  • Common - 3.1%
  • Uncommon - 1.6%
  • Rare - 0.8%
  • Super rare - 0.4%
  • Hyper rare - 0.2%
Each rarity group is about half as likely as the previous group. So, you are 16 times more likely to get a common than a hyper rare. Thankfully, the hyper rare group does not contain any major species in the current game meta.

Egg group

The eggs are split into 3 groups by the walking distance required to hatch them. There are 3 egg groups in the game usually, except during special Pokemon GO events where all the species are put into 2km eggs.
The 3 groups are:
  • 2km - green
  • 5km - yellow
  • 10km - purple

Here are 2 infographics we have made to illustrate the probabilities. First one is to give an idea of what you can expect when you have collected an egg of a certain egg group, and the next is the overall percentage chance to hatch the Pokemon species that you want.

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