How are raids distributed in Pokemon GO?


Some trainers have probably experienced legendary raids fatigue and are looking for more Tyranitar raids right now in preparation for the EX raids. With the number of legendary raids spawning everywhere, it is little wonder that trainers are starting to get sick of them, after all, too much of a good thing can become unpleasant.

Some trainers have started their own research and found out how raids are currently distributed. In their own city, they have noticed that the ratio is about 5 : 5 : 4 : 2 : 4 for level 1 to 5. In percentage terms, legendary raids (level 5) account for about 20% of all raids. In stark contrast, level 4 raids are only 10% of all raids. Compounding on that, only a small fraction of that are Ttar raids. This is why Tyranitar raids seem so rare out there. It is observed that Tyranitars spawn less frequently than other level 4 raids, still inconclusive regarding the exact breakdown within each tier since more data is required. Since there are 7 tier 4 raids, assuming equal distribution within each tier, that would put Tyranitar raids at around 1.5% as compared to 20% for the legendary raids right now, making the legendary beasts at least 13 times more common than the pseudo legendary Tyranitars.

Another interesting observation is that raids only spawn from xx:00 to xx:45 only, and there is no new spawn from xx:46 to xx:59.



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