What affects Pokemon catch chance in Pokemon GO?


Pokemon GO Catch Mechanics

Research done by the good people of the Pokemon GO community, GamePress and the SilphRoad have concluded with numbers and probabilities regarding catch mechanics. More information and methodology regarding the Grand Unified Catch Theory can be found in the links below.


Here is a summarised version:

Factors affecting catch rate:
  • Pokemon species
  • Pokemon level
  • Ball type
  • Curved ball
  • Golden Razz Berry / Razz Berry
  • Throw bonus (Nice/Great/Excellent)
  • Pokemon type medals
This is the equation:
Probability=1(1BCR2CPM)Multipliers



where,

Multipliers = Ball ∗ Curve ∗ Berry ∗ Throw ∗ Medal

Pokemon Species

Species affects the Base Capture Rate (BCR). Higher the percentage the easier to catch.
Eg. Lugia has a BCR of 2% and the legendary birds are at 3%.

Pokemon Level

Pokemon level affects CP Multiplier (CPM). Since all raid bosses are level 20, the CPM is fixed at 0.59740001. 

Ball Type

The multiplier values are as follows.
Poke/premier ball - 1.0
Great ball - 1.5
Ultra ball - 2.0

Since raid balls cannot change, the multiplier is 1.0 all the time.

Curved Ball

Multiplier for curved balls is 1.7. This means that a curved ball with a premier ball is better than a straight great ball.
However, curved ball mechanics and when a throw counts as a curved is inconclusive and might be bugged. Still, do try for curved balls since it is a big factor.
Read here for full research.

Golden Razz Berries / Razz Berries

Multiplier for Razz Berries is 1.5 and Golden Razz Berries is 2.5.
Notice that nanab and pinap does not have a catch multiplier.

Throw Bonuses

Multiplier is inversely proportionate to the size of the circle which you hit (2 - radius).
A circle at max size will have a multiplier of 1, while a circle at half the radius will be at 1.5.

Pokemon Type Medals

The medal that corresponds to the type(s) of the pokemon you are catching will provide a multiplier.
Bronze - 1.1
Silver - 1.2
Gold - 1.3
The average of the 2 type medals multiplier is taken if the pokemon has dual type. Eg. Lugia will take the average of your Psychic medal and your Flying medal.


All these factors combine to give the formula used to calculate whether a pokemon is caught or not.

Some catch rate calculators to help with calculating each throw:



That's all! Good luck trainer!


If you are interested to read about some of the "rumoured tips and tricks" for catching, head here!


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